# Powerball Effect

> Published 2026-05-08 · By lawted (https://x.com/lawted2) · Published on HA7CH (https://ha7ch.com)
> Canonical: https://ha7ch.com/writing/powerball-effect

## English

Recently, I found this new thing. Maybe just tonight. I'm planning to call it the Powerball Effect. Yeah, fuck it. I named it.

It's not that Powerball really makes you a fucking rich person. It means that before you get the result, you briefly live in a totally different world.

I first felt this last Christmas, when I was on the way to Sequoia Park with my friend Jin. That day, the Powerball jackpot was something like $1.7 billion. So when we passed by a gas station, we just bought two tickets. And after buying those tickets, the world was fucking different.

We started seriously talking about what if we actually won. At that time, I was visiting the U.S. with my B1/B2 visa, so I started thinking, if I really won this thing, how am I gonna take the money? Would the IRS tax me? Do I need a lawyer? Do I need to set up a trust? Should I not go back to China first?

And my friend Jin was even more insane. He said, if you really win, maybe you won't be able to walk out of the hotel alive. I said, what? And he said, because if the winning ticket is yours, he might just take the ticket, drive the car away, and I will never see him again in my whole life. That was fucking crazy. We were laughing so hard in the car.

Then later, when we got back to the hotel, I said I was going to take a shower. Jin said, don't you need to wait until 9? Because the result was coming out at 9. What he meant was, if the result came out while I was showering, and the winning ticket was mine, then maybe by the time I came back from the bathroom, the ticket would already be gone. And maybe he would be gone too. That was fucking stupid, but we were really high.

And the craziest thing is, in the end, my ticket actually got three numbers right. Of course, I didn't win the $1.7 billion. But during those few hours, we had already lived a $1.7 billion life.

That's what I mean by the Powerball Effect. It's not about actually winning. It's about holding a ticket that might change your life, and before the result comes out, you start seriously imagining another version of your life.

And I found that startups are kind of the same thing. Recently, I've been building Raily, an app that feels like Flighty for rail. I posted something on RedNote and did some small promotions. At first, I didn't really think it would become anything.

But then tonight, around 1 or 2 a.m., I suddenly found that some people actually liked this thing. Maybe just four or five people. But my feeling was: Oh my God, that's fucking a lot. Finally, someone saw me.

So I posted another video. A couple hours later, about 70 people had joined the group. They wanted to try the app. The video had around 2,000 views, which means every 10 or 20 people, someone wanted to join the group and try this thing. And at that moment, I entered the Powerball Effect.

I started thinking: What if this really works? What if Raily really becomes the Flighty for rail? Flighty is for airplanes, and it can do millions in ARR. What about rail? There are so fucking many people taking trains every day. China, Europe, Japan, the UK, Amtrak, commuters, students, business travelers, rail fans. So if Flighty can do $6M ARR, why can't Raily do $20M? Fuck that. Maybe even bigger.

Anyway, this is the Powerball Effect.

## 中文

我最近发现一个东西，我暂时叫它 Powerball Effect。不是 Powerball 真的会让你发财，而是，在开奖之前，你会短暂地活在一个完全不同的世界里。

我第一次很强烈地感受到这个东西，是去年圣诞节，和我朋友金哥一起去 Sequoia Park 的路上。那天 Powerball 的奖池好像有 1.7 billion，我们两个在路上就顺手买了两张票。然后从买完票开始，整个世界就变了。

我们开始认真讨论，如果真的中了怎么办。我当时还是旅游签去美国，我就在想，如果我真的中了这个钱，我要怎么把它拿走？IRS 会不会扣很多税？我是不是要请律师？是不是要成立 trust？我要不要先别回国？

金哥更离谱。他说，如果你真的中了，你可能不一定能从旅馆里活着走出来。我说什么意思？他说，因为如果开奖之后发现是你的票，他可能直接拿着票跑了，这辈子我就再也见不到他了。然后我们两个人在车上笑疯了。

那天晚上好像九点开奖。到了酒店之后，我说我要先去洗澡。金哥说，你不等九点开奖以后再洗吗？意思就是，如果我洗澡的时候开奖了，然后真的中了，那我出来以后可能票已经没了，人也没了。很傻逼，但真的很嗨。

最离谱的是，我那张票最后还真的中了三个数字。当然，没有中 1.7 billion。但那几个小时里，我们已经把 1.7 billion 的人生过了一遍。

这就是我说的 Powerball Effect。它不是中奖本身，它是你手里拿着一张可能改变命运的彩票，然后在开奖之前，你开始认真幻想另一个版本的人生。

我发现，创业也是这样的。这几天我在做 Raily，一个有点像高铁版 Flighty 的 app，然后我发了一些小红书，做了一些推广。一开始也没觉得会怎么样。

结果今天凌晨一两点的时候，我突然发现，有几个人开始真的喜欢这个东西。可能也就四五个人。但我当时的感觉是：Oh my God, that's fucking a lot. 终于有人看到我了。

于是我又发了一个视频。几个小时之后，有七十多个人加了群，视频两千多 views，大概十几二十个人里就有一个人愿意进群。我当时整个人就开始进入 Powerball Effect。

我开始想，what if this really works? What if Raily really becomes the Flighty for rail? Flighty 做飞机，可以做到几百万 ARR，那铁路呢？中国高铁每年那么多人坐，欧洲铁路也很多，日本、英国、Amtrak、跨城通勤、留学生、商务差旅、铁路爱好者，全世界坐铁路的人并不比坐飞机的人少，甚至很多地方铁路比飞机更高频。那如果 Flighty 可以做 $6M ARR，Raily 为什么不能做 $20M ARR？Fuck that, maybe even bigger.

Anyway, 这就是 Powerball Effect.